Struggling Consumers Juggle Essentials as Education Expenses Increase
Headline: Back-to-School Spending Trends for 2025-2026 Show Cautious Consumer Behavior
As the new school year approaches, American families are preparing for their back-to-school shopping with a more cautious approach, according to recent predictions.
Declining Spending Across Categories
Spending on technology, school supplies, and other home and health products is anticipated to decline this year. Technology spending is expected to drop by 8%, school supplies by 3%, and other home and health products by 12%. This trend suggests that parents are delaying device upgrades and opting for more affordable brands and slower shipping for cost savings.
Retailers Adapt to Consumer Needs
Several retailers have adapted to these changing consumer habits. Kroger has launched a 2-week sales event for back-to-school shopping, while Dollar General is offering discounts on over 1,000 products for summer savings, available through Labor Day. Target is aiming to provide relief and reassurance to price-weary shoppers by holding steady on back-to-school prices.
Back-to-School Spending Remains Flat
Natalie Martini, vice chair and sector leader of U.S. Retail & Consumer Products with Deloitte, stated that back-to-school spending is expected to remain flat due to economic headwinds and financial concerns across income groups. The predicted U.S. back-to-school spending for the 2025-26 school year is approximately $30.9 billion, with an average of about $570 spent per K-12 student. This represents a slight $16 decrease compared to 2024 and a 7% decline relative to 2021 when adjusted for inflation.
Shifts in Category Spending
Interestingly, while overall spending is expected to decline, spending on electronics is predicted to fall by 8%, while clothing spending is projected to rise by 6%. This shift may be largely due to social pressures, as children continue to influence their parents' spending and extracurriculars remain a priority for most parents.
Income-Level Breakdowns Not Disclosed
Unfortunately, the available data does not provide a detailed breakdown of back-to-school spending by income levels for 2025-26. The overall trend indicates that consumer behavior may differ across income brackets, but specific numbers are not available in the search results.
Value-Seeking Behavior Prevalent
Despite the economic uncertainty, 40% of consumers are showing signs of value-seeking behavior, making more cost-conscious choices. This is evident in the 75% of surveyed shoppers who are willing to shift brands if the preferred brand is too expensive, and the 50% of shoppers who are willing to buy private labels over name brands.
Online and Off-Price Retailers Popular
Online retailers, off-price retailers, dollar stores, and warehouse membership clubs are also popular choices for back-to-school shopping. Mass merchant retailers have seen a six percentage point increase in back-to-school shopping, making them the leading channel of distribution.
Parents Plan Strategic Shopping
Parents are planning to focus their back-to-school purchases during big promotional events in July. Lower-income parents plan to spend 10% more year-over-year, while middle- and higher-income parents expect to spend 7% and 9% less, respectively.
California's Education Funding Separate from Household Spending
It's worth noting that California's K-12 education funding from the state budget is substantial, but this relates to public school funding, not direct household back-to-school spending.
The Trump Administration's Lawsuit Against California
In other news, the Trump Administration has filed a lawsuit against California, blaming the state for high egg prices and aiming to eliminate "regulatory burden" on egg and poultry production.
In conclusion, back-to-school consumer spending in the U.S. is modestly down for 2025-26 compared to recent years, with notable shifts in category spending. However, detailed income-level breakdowns are not disclosed in the available data. Consumers are expected to be more cost-conscious this year, with a focus on strategic shopping during promotional events.
- In an attempt to save costs, some families might consider purchasing private label products instead of name brands for their back-to-school shopping.
- With personal finance being a concern for many households, parents might be keen on budgeting more carefully during the back-to-school shopping season, potentially leading to a slower pace of spending on home-and-garden items.
- Given the trend of cautious spending in all categories, consumers may opt for finance options like payment plans or installment purchases to manage their expenses while shopping for personal-finance products, such as calculators or budgeting apps, during the back-to-school shopping season.
